Depositphotos enhanced by CogWorld
In 2007, statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb defined “ Black Swan ” as an event that “ is an outlier, ” as it lies outside the kingdom of regular expectations. Black Swans by that definition are by and large unanticipated, rare, and can be created by geo-political, economic, or from other unexpected events.
Black Swans bring challenges to risk management, specially in our quickly transforming technical landscape. however, those transformative changes in emerging engineering add to the ability to analytically forecast and try to mitigate Black Swan events .
Because of advanced calculation and other emerging technologies, there are Black Swan events we can plan for, and help contain through risk management. While there are many scenarios. There are three categories that I believe we should apply risk management principles to including ; 1 ) threats to the energy grid and critical infrastructure, 2 ) bio-terrorism and pandemics, and 3 ) the electric potential of malefic artificial news .
The Black Swan Threat to the Grid and Critical Infrastructure
secret industry owns most of the nation ’ s critical infrastructure ( for example, communications, transportation system, fiscal, healthcare ) dependant on the energy grid. The public sector helps protect it. Blackouts and haunting cyber-attacks are already a part of operational concern. Helping reduce the vulnerability of the grid and critical infrastructure has become a national imperative mood and the clock is ticking .
In the United States, the grid itself refers to critical infrastructure comprising a network of more than 7,650 power plants, integrated via 450,000 miles of transmittance lines and 70,000 transformer power substations and thousands of might generating units. much of the infrastructure is ten honest-to-god. The ( aging ) grid is very susceptible to three chief Black Swan threats from an energy frequency perspective. They are solar flares, Electro Magnetic Pulse ( EMP ), and cyber threats .
Solar Flares and Geomagnetic Storms:
solar flares are made up of high-energy particles resulting from explosions on the Sun ’ s airfoil. A geomagnetic storm can be defined as a major affray of Earth ‘s magnetosphere that occurs when there is an exchange of energy from the solar hoist into the distance ecosphere surrounding Earth .
It has been estimated that the worldly concern has been struck by more than 100 solar storms in late years. In 2008, the National Academy of Sciences estimated that the damage and dislocation of the grid caused by a austere solar flare could cost up to $ 2 trillion in damages, with a full moon convalescence time of 4 to 10 years. According to erstwhile CIA Director Jim Woolsey, a rare geomagnetic super-storm would collapse electric grids and vital critical infrastructures everywhere on Earth, putting at risk the lives of billions .
EMP:
EMP describes pulses of energy that can be emitted from the blast of a nuclear weapon, portable devices like high baron microwave weapons ( HPMWs ). A 2018 military study by the Air Force titled, “ Electromagnetic Defense Task Force, ” warned that an EMP weapon attack such as those developed by adversaries could destroy our direction of life and displace millions. ( View Military warns EMP attack could wipe out America, ‘democracy, earth order ‘, the Washington Examiner )
Cyber threats:
EMP and Flares are not the only extreme threats to critical infrastructure. There have been attempted cyberattacks on grids and utilities, many via phishing and ransomware, and some have been successful. In 2014, a computer in the control room at Monju Nuclear Power Plant in Tsuruga, Japan, was subjected to malware, but possibly by accident. In 2015, South Korean hackers targeted Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Company, but fortunately to no avail .
Non-nuclear power plants have besides been subjected to intrusions and breaches. A hack in Ukraine was held up as a prime case. In December 2015, hackers breached the IT systems of the electricity distribution company Kyivoblenergo in Ukraine, causing a three-hour world power outage.
Read more : Gulls Win Over Canucks 3-2
Refineries, dams and data centers have all been targets of cyber incursion, many by state-sponsored adversaries. According to the Department of Homeland Security ( DHS ) Alert ( TA17-293A ), terror actors have targeted government entities and the energy, water, aviation, nuclear, and critical fabrication sectors since at least 2017 and, in some cases, have leveraged their capabilities to compromise victims ’ networks .
In the federal civilian sector DHS ’ s raw agency, critical Infrastructure Security Agency ( CISA ), puts a cutting focus on DHS ’ s built-in function in cyber readiness, reply and resilience for critical infrastructure. CISA ’ second stated character is to coordinate “ security and resilience efforts using trusted partnerships across the secret and public sectors, and deliver prepare, technical aid, and assessments to federal stakeholders ampere well as to infrastructure owners and operators countrywide. ”
Risk Management Response:
On March 26, 2019, President Trump issued “ Executive Order on Coordinating National Resilience to Electromagnetic Pulses ” in an campaign to assess the risks of such an attack to critical U.S. infrastructure. This executive Order should lead to new investments in protecting The Grid from existential Solar Flares, EMP, and Cyber threats. There are very promise near-term technologies available that can help insulate critical infrastructure from solar and EMP risks. These solutions require pressing execution to mitigate existing vulnerabilities. In addition, the fortification of cybersecurity through detection, encoding, automation and menace reaction are tools we have and can promote develop to thwart potentially devastating cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure .
The Black Swan of Pandemics and Bio-terrorism:
We are all vulnerable and the watchfulness to bio threats are necessity. The late focus in the news over the outbreak again of infectious Ebola has once again alarm us to the threat of pandemics and bio-terrorism. This is not the first time the issue of biological risks has emerged. back in 2002 and 2003, the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ( SARS ) raised alarms over an epidemic. There was besides the 2001 Anthrax daunt, and the 2004 ricin letters. Measles is once again a catching terror, and many forget that the 1918 spanish Flu influenza pandemic killed more than 50,000 people .
In the study “ Global Trends 2030 ” researchers found that, “ No one can predict which pathogen will be the future to start spreading to humans, or when or where such a development will occur. An easily familial fresh respiratory pathogen that kills or incapacitates more than one percentage of its victims is among the most disruptive events possible. Such an outbreak could result in millions of people suffering and dying in every corner of the world in less than six months. ” ( View Global Trends 2030 : ALTERNATIVE WORLDS, a issue of the National Intelligence Council. )
The awful reality is that angstrom technological sophistication grows, so does the spectrum of threat capabilities deployed by terrorists. According to Daniel M. Gerstein of Rand Corporation, “ The proliferation of biotechnology coupled with the increasing use of technology by terrorists suggests a growing likelihood of a bioterrorist approach. Al Qaeda, in a previous version of its Inspire magazine, had called for like-minded scientists—biologists and chemists—to conduct attacks. ” ( View A Countering Bioterrorism Facility Worth a second Look, The RAND Blog. )
Risk Management Response:
many public sector organizations play significant roles in warning, treat, and protecting against infectious outbreaks. The World Health Organization, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Health and Human Services, Department of Agriculture, and the Department of Defense are all have with the challenges that may arise when dealing with global pandemic events. DHS besides plays an authoritative role in this area, particularly when it comes to bio-surveillance and countering bio-terrorism .
technical and pharmaceutical advances in holocene years have provided some comfort in knowing the ability to detect and combat biological threats. however, a new super-virus pathogen and the bio-terrorist menace still looms bombastic as a Black Swan potential threat .
The Black Swan of Malevolent Artificial intelligence:
The Research and consulting firm Gartner describes artificial Intelligence ( AI ) as a “ technology that appears to emulate human performance typically by learning, coming to its own conclusions, appearing to understand building complex content, engaging in lifelike dialogs with people, enhancing human cognitive performance or replacing people on performance of non-routine tasks. ”
AI can be a game-changer for accelerating cognitive capabilities and economic benefits. In the very about future, we will be able to develop an news from AI that in itself will be an develop form of sense of the human. We will live in a world where human/computer interface will extend our homo mind capacities, memories, and capabilities. We will create robots with the ability to argue and act .
But what if AI runs amok ? A admonisher of that possibility is of the sentient calculator HAL in the science fiction movie a 2001 Space Odyssey who experiences jealousy and commits mangle. many capital airy minds such as Elon Musk, Bill Gates, and Stephen Hawking have expressed fears that our artificial creations may bring pitfalls. Will artificial news pose a menace to world ? At the very least AI will impact our privacy and sour wedge, but it is not excessively difficult to imagine a scenario of self-replicating AI robots and control over humans with interfaced implants dictating our futures and controlling our network environments. Or is it ?
Risk Management Response:
With the growth of AI, we will need to proceed with caution and an ethical framework. It ’ second discernible that skill and technology will pave our futures. How we harness and manage the tools and quantify the risk of emerging technologies such as AI can play a meaningful function lessening risk and consequences of a Black Swan event.
Read more : De gulle minnaar (1990) – IMDb
These are entirely three brief ponderings of potential Black Swan events. There are many others. For example, a meteor hitting Earth ( that has happened a few times in the past ), or a massive volcanic volcanic eruption that has the effect of a major nuclear blast. In all of these scenarios, there are public and academician agencies and organizations examining the implications and responses .
Black Swans and other threats truly do come down to risk management and its basic applications. A good formula to apply is RISK = THREAT X VULNERABILITY X CONSEQUENCE. We can use this formula combined with new boost calculation to better predict, synthesize data, and mitigate extreme events. It is never excessively late to start planning .
I am broadly interested in how human activities influence the ability of wildlife to persist in the modified environments that we create.
Specifically, my research investigates how the configuration and composition of landscapes influence the movement and population dynamics of forest birds. Both natural and human-derived fragmenting of habitat can influence where birds settle, how they access the resources they need to survive and reproduce, and these factors in turn affect population demographics. Most recently, I have been studying the ability of individuals to move through and utilize forested areas which have been modified through timber harvest as they seek out resources for the breeding and postfledging phases. As well I am working in collaboration with Parks Canada scientists to examine in the influence of high density moose populations on forest bird communities in Gros Morne National Park. Many of my projects are conducted in collaboration or consultation with representatives of industry and government agencies, seeking to improve the management and sustainability of natural resource extraction.