Above image credit : The twin towers of the World Trade Center burn behind the Empire State Building in New York after terrorists crashed two planes into the towers on Sept. 11, 2001, causing both to crash. ( Marty Lederhandler | AP Photo )
It ’ sulfur time to reintroduce the “ black roll. ”
several years ago, economist Nassim Nicholas Taleb popularized the concept in terms of economics. It was defined as “ an consequence that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is frequently inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. ” It has been a staple of philosophers for years and normally refers to events that were actually predictable but greatly underestimate in terms of time, placement and impact.
“The Black Swan,” originally published in 2007, became a bestseller during the housing crisis and the Great Recession that followed. (Courtesy | Random House) The outbreak of COVID-19 seems to fit this manufacture perfectly .
After a ten that brought the earth SARS, MERS, Avian Flu, Swine Flu, Zika, Ebola, Marburg and dozens of strains of often deadly flu, it would seem coherent to assume that viral outbreaks would continue to occur and possibly with increase regularity. In this context, there is nothing unusual about an outbreak like the one taking place now. What was not known or expected was its virulence, the vulnerability of the world and the underground to the measures suggested for control .
The new coronavirus has been a dual menace from the very beginning of the outbreak. There is the health affect as a madly virus – though not vitamin a deadly as SARS, MERS, Avian influenza and others that have already killed hundreds of thousands of people every class. The other menace has been economic, and this has been a self-made affect resulting from efforts to control the outbreak. What started as a supply chain crisis as China basically shut down has become a crisis brought on by mandate closures and enforce isolation .
The major question immediately is how the worldly concern rebounds from this. The most desperate assessments hold that biography is constantly changed and global depression is sealed. The optimists assert this will all be over in a month or two. The reality probable lies somewhere in between .
Previous Black Swans
Given the many unanswerable questions at this stage, it is helpful to look at past “ black swan ” events .
possibly the most outstanding would be the 9/11 terrorist attacks. It was a complete shock to the U.S. when those hijacked airplanes destroyed the twin towers, damaged the Pentagon and attempted to attack Congress, but it was not wholly unexpected. There had been high-profile terrorist attacks for many years, but not in the U.S. and not on this scale .
The economic impact was similar to what is taking place now. For weeks people were afraid to get on an airplane or flush go to work in places that might be targeted. People stayed home, shunned contact with strangers and prepared to live under siege. There was a gutter paper hoarding site due to the attacks. It took respective months before things started to return to normal as cipher knew how to declare the threat at an end – just as we struggle now to understand when an “ all-clear ” can be sounded for the coronavirus .
There have been many crisis situations that resemble the current COVID 19 pandemic, although few have become so ball-shaped in nature. There have been references to the spanish influenza outbreak of 1918, but it seems long ago and irrelevant to the current position. There are many who remember the terror of the poliomyelitis epidemic in the 1950s. Children were mandated to remain in isolation and the health organization was overwhelmed by the disease that crippled and killed thousands of kids. There besides have been measles outbreak every year that kill ( 140,000 in 2018 ) and this is despite an effective and easily obtained vaccine .
Processing Black Swans
There are three phases to a “ black swan ” event .
The first is shock and incredulity as it seems to come from nowhere. cipher is prepared psychologically for the impact and reactions are constantly extreme. There is no history to refer back to and no sense of when the crisis can be declared at an end. The measures taken to deal with the menace are extreme and chaotic because cipher has experience with the menace .
The second phase develops as the terror becomes more familiar and blueprint emerge. Some of the strategies and tactics employed in the first phase seem to work and this provides a direction.
The one-third phase is one of examination and, unfortunately, an try to place blame. With the advantage of hindsight there are all manner of steps that might have been taken or should have been taken. It is probable true that there were ways to avoid the event, but cognition of an unknown and unexpected threat can be intemperate .
It is arguable that the universe has entered the beginning of phase two as some strategies are proving useful. much of the progress has been seen in China and there has tied been some refund to normal patterns. There has been some undertake at evaluation but that phase will wait until more progress is made .
A expression at the events surrounding 9/11 can be instructive here equally well .
In phase one of the 9/11 crisis there was confusion and chaos. Security was overriding but cipher knew what to secure from whom. aircraft were grounded, guards surrounded improbable buildings, schools were closed, ammunition and accelerator sales soared, people were immediately under suspicion if they looked Middle Eastern in lineage. The economy crashed due to the doubt that gripped the markets .
Phase two began to develop within a calendar month or two as the panic dwindled. now the responses became commit as airport security ramped up and the U.S. invaded Afghanistan to end the Taliban ’ s confirm of those held creditworthy for the attack. The terror seemed to fade although there continue to be attacks on a smaller scale closely every month and there have been many large-scale attacks in versatile parts of the universe. The recriminations came soon after as the intelligence residential district was assailed for its failings .
In the aftermath of the 9/11 attack as in the aftermath of all the other “ black roll ” events there was a convalescence and restitution to old patterns. But in every case, there was lingering and permanent exchange. The bequest of 9/11 was a decades-long war and the Transportation Security Administration. The bequest of poliomyelitis and the measles was a bulk immunization campaign. Although it is besides early to describe, there will be a permanent change in the U.S. due to COVID-19 angstrom well .
Reacting to This Black Swan
At this stagecoach, there are three likely reactions that will alter the future economic landscape .
The first is a far tighter public health safety net. just as the 9/11 terror attacks created a indigence for expand security, this pandemic will provoke an expanded health response. There will be mandatary testing for the “ at-risk ” population and there will be very little tolerance for people who circulate while sick with anything communicable. Human resource recommendations are already calling for policies that prohibit people from working around others if they show signs of illness. It is besides likely that funding will radically improve .
The second gear change will be up to the commercial enterprise residential district. For years, there have been predictions that more people would telecommute, but there has been deep resistor from managers and employees. now that millions are engaged in the practice it will become the average for many companies. There will be far fewer in-person meetings as people get comfortable with the outside option. This will ultimately affect air travel travel and the hotel commercial enterprise as they both have depended on that business traveler .
finally, this outbreak started with a provision chain crisis and the crisis may end with another one. The old strategy of relying on a single reference for products may have been fast and effective, but it always was delicate. This hard lesson has been learned repeatedly following earthquakes in Japan, floods in Thailand and other events. The watchwords for manufacture and other sectors will become diverseness and repositing. The just-in-time rescue arrangement may have passed .
Chris Kuehl is co-founder and a managing conductor of Armada Corporate Intelligence.
Read more : De gulle minnaar (1990) – IMDb
Like what you are reading?
Discover more unheard stories about Kansas City, every Thursday .
Thank you for subscribing!
Check your inbox, you should see something from us .
Enter Email
Power Kansas City journalists to tell stories you love, about the community you love. Donate to Flatland
I am broadly interested in how human activities influence the ability of wildlife to persist in the modified environments that we create.
Specifically, my research investigates how the configuration and composition of landscapes influence the movement and population dynamics of forest birds. Both natural and human-derived fragmenting of habitat can influence where birds settle, how they access the resources they need to survive and reproduce, and these factors in turn affect population demographics. Most recently, I have been studying the ability of individuals to move through and utilize forested areas which have been modified through timber harvest as they seek out resources for the breeding and postfledging phases. As well I am working in collaboration with Parks Canada scientists to examine in the influence of high density moose populations on forest bird communities in Gros Morne National Park. Many of my projects are conducted in collaboration or consultation with representatives of industry and government agencies, seeking to improve the management and sustainability of natural resource extraction.